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, everyone. i'm larry kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." tax hikes, tax hikes, and tax hikes. one way or another, that's about all i hear on this fiscal cliff business, and you know what? what about spending cuts which is the true source of the deficit problem along with anemic economic growth. and here's one. we just got confirmation that the latest fiscal numbers from the treasury department show the federal government ran up more red ink in october than it did the year before, and guess what? spending went up double digits from the year before. what a surprise. but the white house got one thing right today. it released a study showing that a massive year-end tax hike would kill consumer spending by $200 billion, right. so let's not raise taxes. and in addition to all of this, the joint chiefs of staff is apparently drawing up plans to keep 10,000 u.s. troops in afghanistan past the 2014 deadline. this break a president obama promise, but some promises are made to be broken, and i think this is probably a good move. but first up congress back at work tonight after the holiday recess
to be optimistic. neither taxes nor spending nor entitlements were solved today. in fact, president obama never even mentioned the word spending. the one thing we do know, your taxes are going up from an obama care tax attack. no matter what happens on the fiscal cliff. and is another bailout nation on the way? student loans up to $1 trillion, huge delinquency rates, default rates going sky high, no credit standards and sky high tuition. sound likes a real bad story to me. ceos have just wrapped up their meeting with president obama about the fiscal cliff and minutes ago john harwood landed a big fish. goldman sachs ceo lloyd blank finefein. >> the highlight of the meeting was the intensity from which the white house emphasized that marge al rates as a matter of math and politics have to go up somewhat, if not all the way to 31.6 had to go up and as p he said as a necessary ingredient of a deal, he would support such a rate. >> the president said we would pursue our own interests. i'm not -- i'm certainly not insisting, i don't even desire higher rates. i think there lab drag if revenue goes up
the damage that mighting done in fixing it. you don't think the tax increases that could come at the end of the year and the spending cuts of less 100 build, you don't think those would in deuce a severe recession and everybody on wastreet? >> they are not that big of rate increases so far. welcome to the show and what would you do about it? >> they are proposing letting the bush tax cuts stand for everyone because the top 2%. if you raise them and closing the interest loop hole, fixing the estate tax you come out to $100 trillion in savings. >> serious question, you have a famous name and we welcome you onto the program. do you record that as rich? >> what i regard is irrelevant haven't, the fact of the matter is they represent the bottom of the 2% of easternrners in the country. the question is an interest heihe i interesting one. we have been cherry picking the stories. the fact is that 3% of businesses will be affected by these increases. could be a big three percent though. let me go back to casey mulligan. i believe she is in favor of raiseing the capitol gains tax. how do you look
might want higher rates and cap on reductions for more tax revenues. that could be a deal-breaker and the markets won't stand for long while nothing gets wrong. i don't want to be overly pessimistic. i'm trying to be realistic. i'm reporting what i'm hearing. but stocks did rise a bit on news after cease-fire between israel and whhamas. is israel snaf particularly when we know that palestinians and gaza may just rest unand rearm for the next round? >>> finally as you head out into the thanksgiving traffic, ask yourself where president obama still hasn't given the green light to the keystone pipeline that would give us jobs and energy n independence? now a truly bipartisan group of senators is telling the president to make a decision right now. first up this evening, this is the big question. will we get a deal done or might president obama just let us go right over the fiscal cliff, take the recession, and simply blame the gop? this is a serious question that i'm hearing from washington all the time. so let's talk. we have cnbc contributor jack bernstein, former chief econ
for middle class tax cuts only. he has a $30 billion temporary targ target. that is not rising above the fray. rural towns are seeing a drop indiana coi indiana coi in, income. it is a free market revolution. first up tonight. the count down continues. >> entitlements are off the table. i don't see how john by nor aoe going to take them out. you guys lost the election. president obama said he was going to raise taxes on the richest 2%. why is this a surprise? that is what happens at the end of the year. it is a little slow. we'll get over that. come january first, they will pass the tax cut for 98% of the people. >> i didn't think this was a mandate. i agree your man won. but jim, the basic deal was, okay, john boehner acknowledging what this was. putting this on the table and he said this a million times in return for some. modest reform. while the biggest stuff waits for next year. if the democrats say it is off the table and if harry reid is trading bars with mitch mcconnel, what is up here. senator durban said, it shouldn't be ps deal. i don't think there is a bar gain to be had. it is a
're going to delve into any type of serious reform on the tax or entitlement side or even a framework by christmas. oh, yeah. i guess i'm the tooth fairy. >> bill, so what do you do here with no fiscal cliff deal yet, with whispers of possibly the fed stimulating the economy even further, and with economic data pouring in almost daily that suggests we're still sputtering along? >> well, i tend to think 2013s going to be a great year. i'm not just looking at housing and employment. i'm looking at the architectural building index. there's stuff in the draw room. they're ready to bid out this winter and break ground in the spring. the republicans know that. the democrats know that. i would agree with rick. right now it's hard to imagine they can come up with something. we know they can. we know the democrats can say, okay, we'll give you something on means testing entitlements and we'll move the social security age up. republicans will say, we'll get rid of second mortgage deductions. they can do it. i don't think they really want to do it yet. so we just sit here sort of up 100, down 10
an alternative minimum tax he had been talking about for the really wealthy. >> 30% or something. >> anybody from 1 to $10 million. also talked a little bit about raising the -- >> same thing he's been saying all along. >> he added that when it comes to who should be paying the higher taxes, he wants the threshold to be $500,000. >> and you see steven rattner on on talking about capital gains, deductions and things you've talked about a lot. >> time for the global markets report. ross westgate totally still confuse aed about thanksgiving and pilgrims. what was all the hoopla about? you celebrate boxing or something, don't you? like we lost a great boxer. is that what you celebrate? what is boxing day? >> boxing day, the day of a christmas. >> you wrap all your presents in boxes? >> i think it's something to do with all the presents. i'm not quite sure. >> yeah, put them in boxes. >> maybe. >> so you ignored our thanksgiving. but feeling okay again? >> yeah. you know, it's okay. it's all right. it's gone. now we can concentrate on the run up to christmas. and how much shopping we have to do. >> a
look at the relative yield, not only is there a tax advantage you're picking up significant yield. >> michael, what would you buy here? >> how about this, gold? let's bias sets where people will be nervous and flee to assets that give them some sense of comfort. i think gold will be a $2,000 an ounce trade sometime in the next 12 months. again, i also agree you need to buy -- you should not buy treasury. i think treasuries are a bubble waiting to burst. i like municipal bond trade. i like intermediate to short term average quality corporate bonds where you're not really paying so much for the high corporate quality rate. i think you can get better yields. as russ mentioned, absolutely, investors are going to have to have some money in fixed income. you can't set in cash at zero percent, it will kill you from an inflation point. >> i've been at cnbc since 1998. sing the piece of advice given over and over is whatever you do, don't buy the long end of the treasury curve because it's a bad investment. and yet it has been the greatest investment. at some point that's going to change,
at this point. >> but when you look at those, they all have some come by neigh of spending cuts and tax increases. the idea is that over a period of time, you basically put the country in a better path, the government in a better path to spending and taxation. what you don't want is the fiscal cliff because that was designed to be something that nobody liked. and the reason is, yes, you've reduced the deficit from about 7% of gdp down to about 4% of gdp, so you move in the right direction really dramatically, but you do it in a way that nobody was happy with exactly where those cuts come from and exactly how the taxes increase. >> with what you're seeing, and we never know, it's almost like a mating dance where you've got the male and a feel of some species -- >> it's an ugly one. >> looks like they're never going to do it. they get closer and closer. >> but there is a lot of -- they back off and they might even look like they're fighting. but do they eventually, you know, do it? >> well, i think certainly everybody hopes so. because it would be better than if they don't. >> that didn't
. maybe they don't know about the tax increases that await us. do they know about the layoffs and the take away of the stimulus? are they foolish and brave? smug, we won't go back into a recession? perhaps obtuse. like the warden in "shawshank redemption." first off, we shouldn't be putting that much faith in the consumer value numbers to begin with. it was right at the beginning of the breakdown of society as we know it. sure, they were confident. but they were wrong. great depression was right around the corner. second, many people polled were paying no income taxes. we know that 47% of the people in the country were paying the rates. but a lot of people in the country, cohort small and it is a small part of the survey. maybe the wealthier people haven't assessed the impact, given how difficult the tax code is to comprehend. i have been trying to figure out what it could be. that makes me cautious. third, it is possible we are overstating the whole fiscal cliff issue. there are people who calculate how much they would owe. they are still spending aggressively. maybe they just don't care.
repeated their openness to being willing to raise taxes, which is something that is violated republican orthodoxy. here is jay carney just a few minutes ago in reaction to those comments. >> some of the comments you mentioned are welcome. and they represent what we hope is a difference in tone and approach to these problems and a recognition that a balanced approach to deficit reduction is the right approach. it's the one most beneficial for our economy. >> reporter: the president's trying to take advantage of that different tone. he talked to speaker boehner over the weekend by telephone. and today you've had two business leaders, john engler, tom donahue, in to meet with senior white house officials. they're trying to keep this going. aides on capitol hill tell me no substantive progress in negotiations just yet. they're just now getting back to work after thanksgiving. >> how does that make you feel about the market? does it make you feel like they have more kum-bi-ya going on in washington, d.c.? does it make you more willing to invest? >> i'll tell you what. i saw spielberg's "linc
, that what moved up nicely is going to be the piggy bank that gets cracked first before the tax man comes based on the unknowns of the fiscal cliff. >> would you buy gold here, michael? >> no, no. i'm going wait for it to wash out a little more. then i'm going add to my positions. i have a -- >> you don't weigh gold outright. >> you have to own some gold. qe-4 is coming. no doubt about it. they're already doing $40 billion per month. it's going to be $85 billion of unsterilized counterfeiting per month starting january 1. how do you abandon gold in that premise? >> that's exactly right. we're playing it a little bit differently. we like some of the gold-related companies. >> the miners have gotten beaten up. they got beat up much worse than the actual metals. >> there's cost and exploration you have to factor in. >> are those your best ideas? >> no, actually. i think you can still -- i'm half if cash. i think you can look for areas to enter in o short position on lockheed martin. >> defense stocks because of the fiscal cliff. >> yes, but once that gets solved, i think you have a huge rall
at the white house this afternoon to make his case for higher taxes ahead. we will also go to the home state of a kai player in tey pl talks. >>> the chevy volt struggling to work with car makers aed car buyers. why is general motors doubling down with its big bet in electric and has it jumped its sales? >>> facebook stock up 10% in the past week and 30% the past two months. has it finally turned a corpser? >>> speaking of corners, we have switched corners, tyler, the gentleman that he is, is braving you the snow and the ice in new york city and he is down on the floor of the new york estock exchange. >> a mucky day. not since 2008 has it been so high. more evidence the housing recovery is taking root. prices rising in the big cities but a warning we may head into a recession next year if the u.s. and europe don't solve their fiscal messes. right now the dow industrials a built of a breather down 21 points. >>> meanwhile, 34 days to the fiscal cliff. will a deal be done in time? today, president obama meets with small business leaders to make his case for the possibility of higher taxes ahea
uncertainty, jim, uncertain in taxes, uncertain in the elections. >> right. >> caller: and inflation is a big concern of mine. is there anything i can do at my age to protect myself from all these uncertainties that are coming up? >> okay, well, look. i've got to tell you unless you have -- you're a person who really does have to heed my 20% in gld or gold, gold bullion. i'm not going to tell you listen, you should buy bonds that yield 2% and that's going to protect you. i think gold is going to be the best defense you have against the worries that you just outlined. let's go to anthony in virginia, please. anthony? >> caller: washington redskins boo-yah rg3 nation stand up. >> man. dan snyder is your owner, have you thought about that at all? >> caller: i got a quick question. >> boo! >> when stay on the sidelines or look to get in long-term? >> when it's overbought, my old rule, i use the s&p oscillator. it comes delivered to my door on saturdays. my rule is very overbought, hey, take a pass. another time will come. however, you can get started small and hope it comes back if you just can't
, makes everyone pay more in taxes. i don't really want to have this gear. the president said today he thought a deal could be done by christmas. the speaker of the house said he's optimistic a compromise could be reached. i wear this pin every night in in part because i genuinely believe it is not a lost cause. tonight business leaders in washington are urging a deal. people who are not really known as pals of the president. the president also bringing his pressure to bear on small regular people, regular folks. i'm old enough to remember when it meant my parents. he's turned to twitter to talk about the evil kwonss of cliff jumping. let me tell you, why all this talk may end up being nothing but big hat and no cattle. what we're seeing now is something which was supposed to be totally draconian, increases in old tax rates, coupled with automatic cuts in spending may not be unpalatable to change the minds of intransit politician. that's because right now that the very moment many of those politicians believe rising above politics is political suicide, that compromises the real and dre
that congress ought to take a deal offered by democrats to go ahead and extend the bush tax cuts but only for the people below $200,000 in income. here's the president. >> the senate's already passed a bill that keeps income taxes from going up on middle class families. democrats in the house are ready to vote for that same bill today. if we can get a few house republicans to agree as well, i'll sign this bill as soon as congress sends it my way. >> reporter: this is the president trying to take advantage of having the high ground in public opinion but we've heard from erskine bowles in the last 24 hours that the white house is privately showing some flexibility on the issue of the top tax rates. the administration believes they have to go up swla to get money they need to strike a deal, but not necessarily to 39.6% according to erskine bowles. >> john harwood, thank you. >>> investors of course watching the fiscal cliff chess match very closely. as bob showed us, the markets are moving on every bit of news. will there be a compromise to talk about that on capitol hill, senator john hovan
,000 people in a room. doesn't really matter. norquist saying don't have a deal. have to raise taxes. democrats don't seem to favor lowered defense budget and favor higher taxes for the rich and so we're done. i think we're done. >> after durbin speoke yesterda, if you're going to get a blueprint, he doesn't want entitlements be part of it for next year. >> it's the 1,000-point solution. maybe that will change their mind. durbin said no. norquist is saying no tax increase. what else is there? am i missing something? what am i missing? blankfe >> stallen made a lot of sense. mass murderer about you doesn't mean he didn't make sense. >> blankfein, kent, mayer, roberts of comcast. is there anything these guys can say to change their tune? to get people -- >> we're just past thanksgiving. let's give it a little time. things can change. we've seen lots of back and forth. everybody is establishing their negotiating position. there's still a negotiation to come in some way. i'll take the optimistic view. >> maybe that's where they are starting from. >> a reset button? >> we have yet to get
of tax cuts will expire. there will be spending cuts and there will be jobs lost. john harwood with the latest from washington now. john? >> tyler, i'm pretty sure those congressional leaders' bellies were full even before thanksgiving. as you can see from the meeting they had just before the thanksgiving break, they were off to a smiling start with the president of the united states but there hasn't been much progress made since then. let's go over the fiscal cliff by numbers. first of all, they're all one. there's one month left before we go over the cliff if nothing is done. two, there's 1.4 percentage points that the white house says would be shaved off of gdp if middle class taxes go up between now and then. there's about $1 trillion which a democratic aide in the senate tells me they would need for a down payment deal to be done by the end of the year with the remaining three-quarters of the deal to be done early next year if they're going to get one. finally, there was one phone call over the weekend between president obama and house speaker john boehner. now i just hear
have on the tax treatment of dividends out there? you get all these companies imposing early dividends, special dividends to try and slip it in before the end of the year. yet, you're still buying high yield right now. >> that's right. the reason i'm not worried is the high yield side of our strategy is preferreds, high yield bonds, mortgage-backed securities. those are areas that don't have the preferential treatment on the income stream right now. it does include the dividends on the common stocks that have the qualified dividend preferable tax treatment. the areas we're investing in high yield, in fact, if the taxes on dividend paying stocks goes up on a relative basis, they look even more attractive on a comparable basis. >> steven, what are you guys doing on the floor right now? there are an awful lot of guys who have been skeptical on the rallies recently. are you among them? >> i think long-term david is right. but right now, there's going to be a lot of bumps in the road. you can play both sides. where was the s&p resistant today? it was resistant at 1407 three times. that was
their own day of thanks. >> they can't stand it. this is one we made good without them. they tried to tax us without representation. >> i think july 4th is probably worse. >> either way, they hate both of those holidays. >> ross, do you hate thanksgiving? >> no, i don't hate thanksgiving. 400 years ago, they gave thanks for the pilgrim fathers to leave, i think. >> there you go. they didn't want us anyway. >> now look what happened. >> oh. he's 007. >> good luck with the turkey, by the way. >> thank you, ross. we appreciate it. have a great day or so. we'll see you back here on friday. >> they probably don't like any of our holidays. >> christmas. >> very jealous. >> they have places in london with a good thanksgiving. i remember when i lived in london, ross could participate in this. >> that was big of him. i was going to ask him about thanksgiving, but he extended a happy thanksgiving. >> i could tell it was tinged with a little resentment. >> not from ross. >> still to come on squawk, we have a well-known name to our viewers. jim chanos, he'll be joining us in just a few minutes. >>> befo
will be meeting with small business leaders. at issue of course is the series of tax increases and spending cuts that kick in at the end of the year if congress doesn't act. >> there will come a point in time where we can't borrow anymore money and interest rates will sky rocket. >> cnbc's raise above campaign continues. we're asking who has the courage to rise above partisan politics and find a solution. among our guests, three men who understand washington, wall street and corporate america very well. we have the chairman of president george w. bush's council of economic adviser, ed lazear, roger altman, and real estate tycoon don peebles. but let's cover this morning's top headlines. >>> we do have a lot in the corporate headlines this morning including equity residential and avalon bay communities agreeing to buy archstone from lehman brothers holdings. the price tag, about $6.5 billion in cash and stock. the deal gives lehman cash to help pay its creditors as it liquidates. but it paid $22 billion for this company originally. so $6.5 billion versus $22 billion, and you can see how lehman go
tax hikes will hurt the middle class. obama will meet with the second group of ceos at 4:45 p.m. to get their input on how to solve the crisis. the group will include brian roberts, and yahoo!'s marisa meyer. for more, we're joined now by charles deebel. the president meeting today over the fiscal cliff. really the reason for the underperformance we've seen, not just in u.s. equities, but actually worldwide overnight. >> i think so, i think there's really a reevaluation with respect to europe going on as well, and having had a greek solution. and then they start to look at the rest of the eurozone, particularly spain. so you deal with one issue, but there are still plenty more stacked up behind. so that didn't help. but yeah, those comments clearly not constructive. it is the number one problem now having got to greece effectively out of the way, spain is on the back burner. the u.s. fiscal cliff is the worry at the moment. >> for all the time we've already spent talk about it, the reaction seems to reflect the fact that an assumption that they will reach a deal is priced in a
on the fiscal cliff, chances are we get a slower economy next year because of the higher taxes and cutting spending? >> i want to touch on something that liz just said. i have tried to get her to play along with this game. >> i gave up long ago. >> she always resists me when i try to pin her down on the number. i guess she's smart. as you mentioned, a fellow from morgan stanley coming out saying, look, i blew it. it's a pain for me. i don't want to do this. i think what they're banking on is this whole fiscal cliff thing, the europe thing. all of the head winds for the market are never going to see the worst case scenario. i think just kind of the picture is this muddle through going forward. i called up today and tried to -- i talked to some of the most bearish people i know. they're all just kind of saying, yeah, we're going to muddle through. the fiscal cliff is going it get resolved one way or the other. europe is going to get resolve one way or the other. i think this is one of -- >> steve, he brings up a good point. consumers are not worried about the fiscal cliff. intraday trading t
almanac had today. >> we want to know what taxes are going to be. there is a big -- one of the things i look at the charts every weekend. i'm pathetic. i have them delivered to my door. everything stops in the house. utility stocks are horrendous. i think that's people saying, look, dividend is going to -- >> 39.6 on your dividends will be a different story. >> have you seen those charts? they are the worst. >> i get them delivered as well of course. >> who doesn't? >> saturday morning i like to get up and look at my charts. >> i think we have something in common. i feel better. >> three tech companies known for their beaten down stocks are getting good news from the street today. facebook upgraded to outperform over at bernstein. cibc raising rimm and yahoo! added to the conviction buy list at goldman sachs. cnbc and yahoo! have a business alliance to share and co-produce editorial content. my favorite is rimm. >> i love that. >> the blackberry 10 is locked in for january 30th. they say the carrier feedback will become more clear and a lack of new competing devices -- not sure on what
forward ahead of tax changes next year. the question is who's next? >> greece gets the bailout payment as the eu and imf agree on terms of debt sustainability. where does it leave the greek economy which has already shrunk by nearly a fifth? >>> and warren buffett on tv this morning saying he wouldn't sell a single share of stock even if he was guaranteed the u.s. goes off the fiscal cliff. just wait until you hear who he thinks should be the treasury secretary. >> we'll begin of course with the deal of the day. conagra foods has agreed to acquire ralcorp for $5 billion. $90 a share in cash. 28% premium to the closing price on monday. kayla tausche reported on potential for a deal between the two companies back in 2011. it creates the largest private label food company in north america. this is a big deal. >> yes, it is. it's big in size in terms of what we've seen in this market. look how excited he is. and they finally got it done. it's been one as you pointed out that was around in 2011. they couldn't get it done. that is conagra. they walked away. ralcorp stock price fell dramatica
over some of the concepts that underpin our approach to international tax law. if you have a look at the concepts that very much dry the way in which we determine taxing rights, emphasis about source and residence and permanent establishments, this is very much the language of law that was assigned for industrial and i think it's increasingly found to be wanting when it comes to some of the challenges that the information and digital age that we're now confronting. >> nobody is doing anything illegal. there are complex tax arrangements that are perfectly legal. should we be taxing profits or some other measures of companies. >> well, certainly i think these sorts of things have to be on the table in terms of whether or not it might be a question of looking at where the actual economic activity is occurring. certainly in relation to whether or not companies are in breach the tax laws, i can't generalize, but there are number of practices that comply with all the relevant domestic laws. but the issue boils down to whether or not the international tax concepts are capable of properly
after itself. that might entail a step drop because at the moment we're giving these tax breaks, but we're doing it out of our saving. >> but the point isn't just that we have to restore a higher level perhaps of taxes and lower level of spending than we might like. the problem with the u.s. is it gets into that ideological dispute over whether the way to do that should be by cutting spending and raising taxes. so there is an actual sort of fundamental disagreement that underpins this sense of knee jerk -- >> why have we had to do this? we've had to borrow money and cut people 00 taxes and spend more on social services because the underlying private sector economy completely ran out of steam. it ran out of steam because it needs the banking system to feed off. it needs access to trade credit, to business finance, et cetera. and so when the banking system suddenly said we've got another imperative for us the next few year, we'll have to rebuild our balance sheets, the private sector is temply cut off and drifts. so the public sector has to step in. so what we're really discussing is the
to pay tax i think on your winnings in the u.s. but there is also only a one in 176 million chance of winning. but what would you do if you did scoop the top prize? e-mail us at worldwide@cnbc.com, @cnbcwex, or @rosswestgate. >>> and warning of an impact of the strong yen on growth, but the job of solving that doesn't lie on the bank of japan alone. more when we come back. >>> it's cyber monday and shoppers are expected to spend more than $1.5 billion. >> from the moment you check out at amazon.com, the prz begins. your item is picked, sorded, packed and shipped. this is what the holidays look like here at amazon. to give you perspective, this is just one of 40 fulfillment centers across the country packed with thousands of items in time for the holiday rush. and they'll need them. last cyber monday, they sold more than 200 items per second. one glance at the shelves and it seems work hes put stuff wherever they can find space. >> it helps associates where they don't have to worry about putting things. >> so wherever there is space, there will be product. gr and it doesn't matter c
was the extension of the bush tax cuts. president obama wasn't interested in a deal because he didn't have much leverage. that meant any deal would favor the republicans and alienate his core constituencies. you fast forward to now, look, all negotiations go through ups and downs, but the bottom line is that both sides need a deal. if the republicans push us off the fiscal cliff, they will be blamed for the subsequent recession and they'll pay the price in 2014. president obama also needs a deal because history doesn't remember who the speaker of the house was during a period of weak economic growth. the president gets the credit or the blame. he's going to be written about for 300 years and he does not want to preside over eight years of the weakest growth in u.s. history. so, he needs a deal so that the next four years are better than the last four years. >> we'll see. obviously, still the opening days of this process. charlie, the fed chairman in new york yesterday referring to these talks, reiterating how important it is they get done. he coined the term, fiscal cliff, "the washington post"
a deal, there will be tax hikes and sped spending cuts which could be headwinds in itself. >> the market on a short term basis has been a little oversensitive to every tactical change in the likelihood of some kind of deal before the end of the year. it does not mean to me once we get an agreement or don't get an agreement that the market is automatically therefore more vulnerable. i actually think that essentially the 5% move we've had to the up side in the last week when congress started to express a mutual intention of getting something done, that probably gets most people to the idea of, fine, we hash out some compromise that both can maybe declare victory. if not, then soon thereafter. i do think though that you see decent domestic economic numbers underpinning a lot of what's going on below the surface in the market and the headwinds to me being the open question of whether china with reaction sell rate. to me those two things should be driving the market as opposed to kind of the war gaming of the fiscal cliff talks in d.c. >> todd, is this all about the fiscal cliff for you? let'
classmate grover norquist, the anti-tax crusader who came out swinging this weekend reminding republicans who signed the no new tax pledge to not discuss impure thoughts if they talk about taxes on national television. i know important apornography w it. it made it very clear that any republican who signed the pledge, that's pretty much every republican in congress, who balks at someone whose career is over. to me, that meant the defectors are far and few between. as a moderate leadership cannot deliver those pledge to the norquist hardline. norquist who seems to welcome a bust on the wall of shame, used to beg for it, is more powerful than speaker john boehner. norquist is more powerful than boehner. it feels as if the air went out of the compromise zeppelin. hey, like the graph zeppelin, like, lakers. retail, now we're hearing that there wasn't as much follow-through to the initial sales from thursday night. i think it's nonsense, but mo macy's and costco were tagged with huge loss es today. i believe the holiday sales are far are flat-out strong. amazing numbers from apple, like a rock
sundance kid, butch ka cassidy, when they jump over the cliff and they fell? the taxes are going to go up. interest rates are going to go up. nobody will be able to borrow any money. you can't buy a house. you're not going to be able to do anything that you want to do that you do today. as a result, that's what the cliff means. so if the government doesn't fix this issue and come together and get sane, then the bond markets are going to do it. what's a ten-year treasury now? 1.6 or something like that? it will go to 7%. buying a house will cost 10. it will cost 13 to do other things. you just won't be able to operate. >> you think this is going to be a market disruption, if, in fact, we go over the fiscal cliff? >> absolutely. i don't think people appreciate the fact when you say cliff they think it's a movie. this is what's going to happen automatically. the depending stopping is not thoughtful. taxes going up by 600 billions is not thoughtful. it's an unthoughtful thing brought about by laws in the past. >> which is why you joined this fix the debt campaign? >> absolutely. it's insane n
taxes, but if you look at the cac, for example, they've had a huge week. france was downgraded and did lose their aaa, at least from the moody's vantage point. never before has the rally made 16 1/2% look so cheap, but that last one is an interesting story. you know, one of the things we were supposed to be potentially on this fix and bail was let's try to retire some of that paper, but investors are smart. this is the problem with these programs. they purchased it, and they're probably made the price too expensive. that looks like that's off the table as well. >> i know we have quinn back, so let me pose this question to. a lot of the rally we have seen this week is built on hope as opposed to hard facts. do you feel between now and the end of the year is that the market might react badly to any bad news? >> i think so. i think we have seen a rally that just came from an oversold, you know, very, very sharp decline. we had the qe-3 sell-off, the sell-off after the election. we've gotten half of that back. s? an opportunity, if you were freaking out last week, going my gosh, i don't wa
't know how many schools he's built. nobody knows how much these schools cost. >> the irs tax return for central asia institute filed in 2010 included a list of 140 schools that it claimed to have built or supported in pakistan and afghanistan. over a six month period, we visited or looked into nearly 30 of them. some were performing well, but roughly half were empty, built by somebody else, or not receiving support at all. some were being used to store spinach or hay for livestock. others had not received any money from mortenson's charity in years. the principal of this school told us that the institute had built six classrooms poorly several years ago and since then, not a single rupee. in afghanistan, we could find no evidence that six of the schools even existed, most of them in war-torn kunar province. >> in kunar province, it's really violent. he built three schools there in 2009. so he goes on charlie rose. he says he built 11 schools in kunar province. >> today we have 11 schools also in that district. >> why can't he just say he built three? i mean, that's impressive. you s
there. >> does that change if dividend taxes go much higher as it relates to the fiscal cliff? does the reason to own dividend payers go away? >> i think there will be a repricing of some of that risk, frankly. a lot of it depends on the tone coming out of d.c. there's not going to be a grand bargain this year. i think it's the tone and the message that we'll hear in the next couple weeks. >> meantime michelle, another area you cover carefully, the debt crisis in europe and whether or not greek gets this next trun j. >> headline, greece still needs money. they still haven't gotten it. the hope is they may get it on monday. that could be a potential destabilizing situation, but the bottom line is the only people they really owe the money to right now is the ecb. it's probably going get washed through. it's going to be a lot of drama, but you haven't seen the u.s. markets trade so much on it. we'd have to see them leaving the euro to get an impact. i'm not sure it would be that big an impact. >> you agree, rick santelli? >> i think greece is the canary in the coal mine with regard to
taxes in the country, a $10 billion deficit, and a depressed economy when first-year governor chris christie took office. but after looking at the books, he decided to walk away from a long-planned and much-needed project with new york and the federal government to build a rail tunnel into manhattan. it would have helped the economy and given employment to 6,000 construction workers. lots of jobs. >> yeah. i canceled it. i mean, listen, the bottom line is, i don't have the money. and you know what? i can't pay people for those jobs if i don't have the money to pay them. where am i getting the money? i don't have it. i literally don't have it. >> this is going on all over the country. >> yes. of course it is. it's not like you can avoid it forever, 'cause it's here now, and we all know it's here, and the federal government doesn't have the money to paper over it anymore either for the states. the day of reckoning has arrived. that's it. and it's gonna arrive everywhere. time may vary a little bit depending upon which state you're in, but it's coming. >> and nowhere has the reckoning
%. but they probably don't know that their taxes may go up sharply toward the beginning of next year. fair to say? >> i think that's fair to say. i don't think that it's a particularly nuance perspective in terms of the facets of the fiscal cliff. everybody is generally aware that it's out there and it's hanging out there. i don't think people have an appreciation for the many elements and the way it's going to hit. some of the debate that's taken place and some of the folks that have weighed in on this, we've seen lots of investment company managers and ceos of multibillion dollar companies saying we should put revenue on the table and that's a reasonable accommodation to make. we haven't talked to small businesses. more than a million small businesses who will file ordinary income rates and take a big hit and we know they're the job creators in this economy. they need to be part of the conversation. and i think our concern and what we're going to really watch for is we can't just keep kicking the can down the road and say we'll do something next year. the issue has to be revenues can be on the table.
the economy isn't able to handle the tax increases and spending cuts. we know those comments caused the bulk of the intraday pullback. the market was humming along fine. we did in the end rebound nicely. it was a huge victory for the bulls. the losses, regardless of the cliff and it's aftermath, we need to head off the personal portfolio management errors before they cost another dime for us. today we got two phenomenal examples of what could go wrong in banking. first we had hewlett-packard. if you are like me, i have both and hp pc and household printer. to finish at $11.71. best buy. the big box retailer, i have not once but twice done in the last six months. closed at $11.96. two household names that you may have been lured into only to have your hopes dashed. two unmitigated disasters. >> the house of pain. >> what went wrong? hewlett-packard was an accounting scandal. best buy was a hideous earnings shortfall. both seemed to shock investors. however, if you watch this show, you should never have been in these stocks. or you were betting against them. i told you that these companies wer
issues, there are increased taxes that i wouldn't necessarily want to have happen in the state, which did happen. but we have to address those. i think we've got positive momentum. i know we have positive momentum. so are we perfect? no. but california is growing at a much faster pace and a better pace than most of the united states. so i don't equate it to greece at all. >> mr. caruso, thank you for being with us and a happy thanksgiving to you. >> thanks you. >>> he's a billionaire, right? i wish he were related. >>> all right, next, making cardboard profitable and interesting. jane wells is on the case, of course. jane. >> hey, michelle. say you have a business where you use a lot of cardboard boxes and you want to be green and buy cheaper recycled boxes. we. fou we found a guy that will sell them to you and sometimes they are the original boxes you got rid of in the first place. it's genius! >>> if lawmakers do not act to save the economy from falling off the fiscal cliff, $490 million would be cut from the centers for disease control and prevention's national breast and cervical canc
. the longer the bush tax cuts go away and stay away and the more sequester starts to kick in the weaker the first quarter gets. in a worst case scenario, you fall off the cliff, stay off the cliff, you look at negative numbers in the first quarter. we don't think that's going to happen. our base case somewhere around 1% or so. there's a lot of uncertainty as it relates to the fiscal cliff in the first quarter. >> it could be negative. >> it certainly could be if you go off and stay off. there's no deal. >> jay thank you for joining us this morning. >> thanks, steve. >> becky? >>> when we come back, dude, outlet malls have become major destinations for black friday shoppers. we'll head to tyson's corner outside of d.c. right after this. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world. nespresso. where i never have to compromise on anything. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is only made with fresh milk. and where the staff is exceptionally friendly. ♪ nespresso. what e? ♪ ♪ >>> welcome back, everybody. shoppers at tyson's corner
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